The (dreaded) Lottery
Each of the past few years I’ve entered the Ironman lottery with the hopes of being one of the lucky 150 American triathletes who would get to race in Kona that year. Each year, I’ve been shut out.
For those of you not familiar with the Kona lottery, you shouldn’t feel badly for me not getting in; not “winning” the Kona lottery is pretty much automatic. The odds are long – I couldn’t find official information, but it looks like in 2008 a little over 7,200 people entered the lottery. Of those about 5,500 were from the US. So, 150 out of 5,500 equals a 2.7% chance of getting in or 1 in every 36.667 people get selected.** And I’m certain those odds only get worse and worse every year. I do know a few people who have made it to Kona through the lottery, so I can confirm that it does actually happen!
So, back to the original line of thought: the lottery closes on February 28. And I’ve been trying to decide whether or not to enter.***
* There is a separate lottery for international entrants; 50 slots are set aside for non-US people.
** That’s better than winning the actual lottery, but not something to get my hopes up about. For comparison sake, in 2008, about 10% of the NYC Marathon lottery entrants got selected and in 2006, you had a 37% chance of getting selected in the Western States 100 lottery. Also, unlike the NYC marathon lottery, there’s no automatic entry if you “lose” a few times and there are very, very few ways to guarantee entry (without qualifying, that is!).
*** In order to help with my decision I watched NBC’s coverage of the 2009 Kona race this morning while on the trainer. The only way that “helped” my decision was to make me really, really certain that I need to enter the lottery!
**** I’d say last year – when I wasn’t working – was my best shot at it and even if I had had a good-for-me run, I can’t imagine I would have hit the required sub-10:00!
Run – Feb 1
Distance: 6.3 miles
Time: 49 min.
Course: Office to home
Conditions: Evening run, clear, mid-50’s
Run – Feb 2
Distance: 5.8 miles
Time: 40 minutes
Course: Ballona Creek path
Conditions: Sunny, mid-60’s
Indoor bike – Feb 3
Time: 1:00
Just do it. If you get in, it was meant to be. If not, AC 100 – while not quite as heavily publicized – will probably grow more hair on your satchel than any Ironman could do.
Good luck…either way.
So you put your name in and if you get the slot, who knows, it may alter your schedule, but it is KONA! You just never know. If you don’t get in, nothing is lost.
Good luck.
I enter every year. I went last year as a spectator, and you are right, it would be an unbelievable experience to actually do Kona.
If you get in, I am sure you will find the time to train and be ready…
ya know if you don’t enter than it’s fate you will not get it in and so… you will not have missed your chance. haha..
but hey 2% chance-ish or 1:36 are not bad odds… but then what are the odds of feeling good enough to enjoy Kona after AC100??
I’m not saying don’t enter, as You said, every triathlete wants to go there for the big show, and that includes me. It would be hard to resist if you have been consistent for a few years and I would enter based on that principal.. worry about everything else on April 15!!
rockon’